E153: In conversation with Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI

E153: In conversation with Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

(0:00) Bestie Intros: Sacks keeps receipts! (1:14) Jared Kushner joins the show: background, Trump's campaign validation (13:12) State of Israel vs Hamas, escalation risks (23:04) Historical context around Israel's relationship with the Arab world, understanding the modern Middle East (38:55) Failed solutions, Israel's response, paths to stability (1:04:54) GOP debate, establishment blind spots, pragmatic politics, tribal infighting (1:15:36) Improving macro picture, potential impact on 2024 election cycle (1:28:03) Russia-Ukraine (1:32:53) Big week in AI: OpenAI DevDay, xAI launches Grok, Kai-Fu Lee's announcement Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow Jared: https://tw
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Transcript

SpeakerA
0m 0s
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0m 2s

Sucks. What essay were you writing last night till three in the morning?

SpeakerB
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0m 19s

Oh, I was blasting people on Twitter yesterday. I was collecting scalps. I keep these receipts, uh, of people who attack me on Ukraine. And then, like, six months later, they all write a tweet admitting they were wrong. I'll rub it in their face.

SpeakerC
0m 19s
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0m 22s

You have a little Google Doc and you just go, no, I just, like, bookmark them.

SpeakerD
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I just bookmark them.

SpeakerA
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0m 26s

You have, like, your kill Bill with.

SpeakerB
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0m 27s

Yeah.

SpeakerC
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0m 28s

You are so petty.

SpeakerA
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Uh, I love that about you.

SpeakerE
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Some would say that's a good defense mechanism.

SpeakerD
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0m 35s

Right this way.

SpeakerB
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0m 42s

Yeah, they got to know they're not going to take any free shots, because if they do, invariably I'm proven correct.

SpeakerD
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0m 45s

Then, uh, you're going to clap back.

SpeakerB
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0m 48s

I'm going to smack them. Very trumpian, isn't it?

SpeakerD
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0m 49s

Yeah.

SpeakerE
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0m 57s

It's a very hard burden for you to carry, just being right all the time. I respect the way you do it with such grace and magnanimity.

SpeakerB
0m 59s
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1m 3s

Let your winners ride, rain man.

SpeakerD
1m 3s
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1m 4s

David sat.

SpeakerB
1m 7s
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1m 9s

We open sources to the fans, and.

SpeakerD
1m 9s
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1m 10s

They'Ve just gone crazy with it.

SpeakerE
1m 10s
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1m 13s

Love you, queen of kin.

SpeakerA
1m 15s
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1m 26s

All right, welcome back to the all in pod. Really excited to have a guest with us today, Jared kushner. I'm, um, sure everyone knows who he is. We obviously talked about Jared's interview with lex Friedman on the pod a couple.

SpeakerD
1m 26s
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1m 29s

Of weeks ago, and what happened.

SpeakerA
1m 29s
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1m 32s

Chamath, you dm Jared and started chatting and said, hey, would you be interested.

SpeakerD
1m 32s
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1m 34s

In coming to talk with us?

SpeakerC
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1m 34s

Yeah.

SpeakerD
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1m 35s

About these matters.

SpeakerA
1m 35s
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1m 38s

Jared very kindly agreed to do it.

SpeakerD
1m 38s
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1m 40s

So we're really excited to have, uh.

SpeakerA
1m 40s
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1m 41s

Jared join us today.

SpeakerD
1m 41s
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1m 43s

Jared, welcome. Thank you for having me.

SpeakerA
1m 43s
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1m 56s

So, I don't think you need much of an introduction, obviously, you, uh, were a senior advisor to, uh, President Trump from 2017 to 2021, and, uh, you worked on the US Mexico relationship, as well as led the Middle east peace.

SpeakerD
1m 56s
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1m 57s

Efforts, which I think is going to.

SpeakerA
1m 57s
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1m 59s

Make up the bulk of what we're.

SpeakerD
1m 59s
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2m 2s

Excited to talk about today.

SpeakerA
2m 2s
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2m 16s

Just really briefly. Since leaving office, um, you've been investing, running a firm called Affinity Partners. Is that right? Um, maybe you can share with us just a little bit about what you've been up to, and then we'll kind of get into it here.

SpeakerE
2m 16s
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2m 19s

Perfect. Affinity partners is a private equity firm that I started when we left, uh.

SpeakerD
2m 19s
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2m 22s

Doing growth investing, private equity investing globally.

SpeakerE
2m 23s
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2m 24s

We raised just over 3.1 billion, uh.

SpeakerD
2m 24s
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2m 26s

Doing a lot of investments, trying to.

SpeakerE
2m 27s
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2m 33s

Uh, bring Gulf money into Israel, into the US, trying to figure out how, through investments, uh, you could bring countries.

SpeakerD
2m 33s
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2m 35s

Closer together, people closer together, looking, uh.

SpeakerE
2m 35s
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2m 48s

At a lot of areas where there's, uh, structural transitions happening at, uh, large in the global economy, whether it's near shoring from offline to online, uh, software, a lot of, uh, different interesting areas, a lot in the fintech space and.

SpeakerD
2m 48s
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2m 51s

Financial services right now, uh, but enjoying it.

SpeakerE
2m 51s
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2m 52s

And uh, the goal is really to.

SpeakerD
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2m 59s

Bring the experience that we had from previously, uh, being an investor and um, then the time in government and then.

SpeakerE
2m 59s
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3m 1s

Thinking through how you could use those.

SpeakerD
3m 1s
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3m 7s

Macro, uh, learnings and connections and relationships, uh, and navigational skills to the investing side. Great.

SpeakerA
3m 8s
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3m 33s

So we're going to try and talk later in the show, uh, about macro markets a bit, talk a little bit about some of the activity in AI this week. We think it's all pretty prescient and hopefully we can all dialogue about that. I think it'd be helpful when you and I talked just to get ready for the show today, you mentioned that you had a very liberal upbringing in the Upper east side in New York, and your perspective began to shift as you started to travel the country. Then you were in the Trump White.

SpeakerD
3m 33s
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House and have become very active since.

SpeakerA
3m 37s
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3m 44s

Would love to hear a little bit about how your perspective shifted in the time you spent, because you mentioned you started traveling the country and seeing things that you otherwise hadn't seen living in.

SpeakerD
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The Upper east side.

SpeakerA
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3m 47s

Would love to hear that part of your story before we kind of get.

SpeakerD
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Into things, if you wouldn't mind sharing.

SpeakerE
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Yeah, sure. So, uh, one thing about my life.

SpeakerD
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3m 55s

Is that nothing, uh, has gone according to the plan.

SpeakerE
3m 55s
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3m 57s

Uh, I grew up in New Jersey.

SpeakerD
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3m 59s

Really, uh, nice place in Livingston.

SpeakerE
3m 59s
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4m 3s

Uh, my father was an entrepreneur in the real estate business. Banking, insurance, did a lot of different.

SpeakerD
4m 3s
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4m 5s

Things, really, uh, brought up, um, me.

SpeakerE
4m 5s
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4m 9s

And my siblings to be focused on business. And it really, for us, was a.

SpeakerD
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4m 11s

Good, uh, experience growing up, obviously.

SpeakerE
4m 11s
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4m 13s

Went to, uh, Harvard, and then after.

SpeakerD
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That chose to go to law, uh.

SpeakerE
4m 15s
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4m 21s

School and business school, uh, where I was at NYU. During that time, my father had a legal issue and I was forced to.

SpeakerD
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Take over the business.

SpeakerE
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Um, and so I got into the.

SpeakerD
4m 24s
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4m 26s

Real estate business and then after that.

SpeakerE
4m 26s
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4m 29s

Uh, bought a media company in New York. And that's really where I got exposure.

SpeakerD
4m 29s
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4m 31s

To a lot of what I would.

SpeakerE
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Call New York society.

SpeakerD
4m 32s
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4m 34s

Um, my wife and I, uh, we.

SpeakerE
4m 34s
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4m 43s

Met, got married, and, uh, through that experience, thought, uh, we had a very expanded worldview. Uh, at our house in the Upper east side, we'd have dinner parties, we'd have heads of banks and hedge funds.

SpeakerD
4m 43s
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And technology companies and fashion, um, and.

SpeakerE
4m 47s
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4m 49s

Then it was just a really nice life.

SpeakerD
4m 49s
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4m 50s

And then her father announced, uh, he.

SpeakerE
4m 50s
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4m 54s

Was running for office. And that was, ah, an interesting experience for us as a Republican.

SpeakerD
4m 54s
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4m 59s

We didn't know too many Republicans. Um, were you a registered Democrat prior?

SpeakerE
4m 60s
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5m 7s

Uh, I was registered Democrat growing up. Uh, my father was a big Democrat donor we'd have in our house, whether it be Chuck Schumer or Hillary Clinton.

SpeakerD
5m 7s
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5m 8s

I think my father gave Corey, uh.

SpeakerE
5m 9s
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Booker his first campaign donation. So I know Corey since I'm 15.

SpeakerD
5m 11s
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5m 13s

Years old, uh, so really grew up.

SpeakerE
5m 13s
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5m 16s

Around Democrat politics all of our life.

SpeakerD
5m 16s
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But over time, I think during the.

SpeakerE
5m 18s
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Obama years, I, uh, changed my registration to an independent.

SpeakerD
5m 21s
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5m 23s

I didn't feel like, uh, the Democrat.

SpeakerE
5m 23s
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5m 25s

Party was fully representing my viewpoint, so.

SpeakerD
5m 25s
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5m 29s

I felt more independent minded. And then, um, during the time with.

SpeakerE
5m 29s
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5m 30s

Um, my father in law, when he.

SpeakerD
5m 30s
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5m 33s

Was running, uh, for office, he invited.

SpeakerE
5m 33s
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5m 36s

Me to go with him to a rally in Springfield, Illinois. We flew out there, I got off.

SpeakerD
5m 36s
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5m 39s

The plane and, um, we pull up.

SpeakerE
5m 39s
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5m 40s

To an arena and the guy comes.

SpeakerD
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5m 41s

Up to Trump and says, congratulations, uh.

SpeakerE
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5m 50s

Sir, you just broke the record for the arena, for attendance. Um, and he says, well, who had the record before? And he says, well, it's Elton John, 36 years earlier.

SpeakerD
5m 51s
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5m 52s

And he says, jared, look, I don't.

SpeakerE
5m 52s
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6m 8s

Even have a guitar or piano. This is impressive. So he gets up on stage, um, without really know, riffs for over an hour. And it was interesting for me because I was know, CNN and the New York Times and all my friends in the media basically were describing his rallies as almost like KKK conventions.

SpeakerD
6m 8s
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6m 10s

But I walked around the crowd, nobody.

SpeakerE
6m 10s
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6m 12s

Knew who I was then. And what I saw was that these.

SpeakerD
6m 12s
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6m 20s

Were, were people were old, young, male, female, uh, white, minority, um, um, and.

SpeakerE
6m 20s
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6m 22s

It was just people who were hardworking.

SpeakerD
6m 22s
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6m 25s

Americans who really felt like Trump was.

SpeakerE
6m 25s
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6m 27s

Giving them a voice. And what was interesting to me was.

SpeakerD
6m 27s
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6m 29s

A couple weeks earlier, we'd been at.

SpeakerE
6m 29s
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6m 32s

Uh, the Robin Hood foundation, which is the big philanthropy in New York, where.

SpeakerD
6m 32s
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6m 35s

A lot of the hedge fund managers, uh, support.

SpeakerE
6m 35s
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6m 36s

I remember the chairman of Robin Hood.

SpeakerD
6m 36s
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6m 38s

Getting up and know if we want.

SpeakerE
6m 38s
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6m 45s

To save, uh, the next generation, we want to save, uh, the kids in the inner cities, uh, uh, we have to support common core.

SpeakerD
6m 45s
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6m 51s

That's the way that we can save people. And I remember Trump gets up there and he, um, know if we want.

SpeakerE
6m 51s
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6m 59s

To save education, we have to end common core and send it to the states. And I'm saying, wait, I thought common core was this great thing, but why are all these people against it?

SpeakerD
6m 59s
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7m 0s

And so it really just kind of.

SpeakerE
7m 0s
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7m 15s

Piqued my interest and made me realize that maybe my aperture was way smaller, um, way more closed than I thought it was. And it really led me to seek out a lot of people who had differing points of view than the people I'd been around before.

SpeakerD
7m 15s
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7m 17s

I really opened my aperture, explored a lot.

SpeakerE
7m 18s
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7m 21s

And over the years, I really got the chance to meet with people from both sides.

SpeakerD
7m 21s
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7m 23s

So I have a lot of friends.

SpeakerE
7m 23s
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7m 24s

Who are independent, friends who are liberal.

SpeakerD
7m 24s
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7m 33s

Friends who are very republican. Uh, and, uh, my personal view is I thought of myself more as a pragmatist, uh, fact based and data driven.

SpeakerE
7m 33s
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7m 34s

And based on that, I tried to.

SpeakerD
7m 34s
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7m 37s

Pursue, uh, the different policies that I.

SpeakerE
7m 37s
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7m 40s

Thought made the most sense, uh, in as unemotional a way as possible.

SpeakerC
7m 40s
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8m 19s

How did you figure out that that moment in Springfield could translate all throughout the country? Like, was there a process that you guys went through to validate? Like, hold on. Is this just a moment in time, or is this just a specific area? Or how did you guys get to the ground truth of what the scalable, marketable candidate looked like? Because I'm sure that was part of the calculus in what you did, because I think to, um, your point, maybe the media's perspective was. Hold on a second. This guy is riffing. But it clearly went very quickly from riffing to a methodical plan. And I don't think that's ever really been talked about. Do you want to just tell us a little bit about that?

SpeakerE
8m 19s
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8m 30s

Sure. Well, uh, I would say it was less planned and way more entrepreneurial. And I say entrepreneurial in two different senses. One is the campaign was run incredibly entrepreneurially.

SpeakerD
8m 30s
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8m 32s

People were told that if you work.

SpeakerE
8m 32s
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8m 35s

For Trump, you'll never get a job in Washington again. Which is why he really wasn't able.

SpeakerD
8m 36s
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8m 37s

To hire a lot of people initially.

SpeakerE
8m 37s
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8m 40s

And why a lot of the responsibility for the campaign fell to people like.

SpeakerD
8m 40s
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8m 42s

Myself, who, uh, really just cared about.

SpeakerE
8m 42s
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8m 44s

Him personally and wanted to make sure.

SpeakerD
8m 44s
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8m 46s

That he was able to do a competent job.

SpeakerE
8m 46s
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8m 47s

With, uh, the operations of a campaign.

SpeakerD
8m 47s
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8m 49s

That led to us doing a lot.

SpeakerE
8m 49s
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8m 54s

Of things in an untraditional way, but we actually were able to make the dollars go a lot further. Whether it was building a data operation.

SpeakerD
8m 55s
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9m 0s

Or how we targeted advertisers or how we, um, did our events, we were able to just do it in a much different way.

SpeakerE
9m 1s
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9m 6s

But from a viability of the candidate perspective, uh, I really give all the credit to him, because what I saw.

SpeakerD
9m 6s
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9m 11s

With politicians is a lot of politicians will take polls and then moderate their perspectives.

SpeakerE
9m 11s
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9m 13s

Uh, this is somebody who, without pollsters.

SpeakerD
9m 13s
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9m 16s

And without any political experience, um, really.

SpeakerE
9m 16s
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9m 19s

Put forward a lot of points of view. And keep in mind, in a republican.

SpeakerD
9m 19s
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9m 21s

Primary, a lot of his viewpoints on.

SpeakerE
9m 21s
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9m 25s

Trade were very heterodoxical. They were not what was conventionally thought of.

SpeakerD
9m 25s
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9m 27s

And what I saw with Trump was.

SpeakerE
9m 27s
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9m 31s

That he was able to move the polls to him. And, uh, that was a talent and.

SpeakerD
9m 31s
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9m 33s

Just a skill, persuasion, and, uh, his.

SpeakerE
9m 33s
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9m 36s

Willingness to kind of stick to the issues at that point in time.

SpeakerD
9m 36s
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9m 39s

I remember seeing polls that illegal immigration.

SpeakerE
9m 39s
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9m 41s

Was not like a top five issue when he started the campaign.

SpeakerD
9m 41s
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9m 45s

And by the middle to end of the campaign, people were really seeing the.

SpeakerE
9m 45s
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9m 50s

Uh, craziness that was happening at the southern border and why that was, uh, critical to our national security.

SpeakerD
9m 50s
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9m 52s

And so, um, I think that for.

SpeakerE
9m 52s
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9m 58s

Him, he found a lot of his message, and with him, he was not a perfectly, uh, always on message candidate, but what he did do was he.

SpeakerD
9m 58s
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10m 0s

Was constantly evolving and learning,

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